Hmmm. In the last week two polls have come out that test the feasibility of a
Kerry/Dean ticket (Zogby
and Fox). I
wonder if the media is getting bored with the Kerry/Gephardt, Kerry/Edwards,
Kerry/Vilsack talk and is looking for something more interesting. I wonder if Kerry
might be looking for something more interesting?
Both of these polls show that Kerry/Dean does about as well as any of the
other likely picks (I'm excluding Kerry/McCain since that will not happen).
Steve Soto
points out an interesting detail of the Zogby poll:
What is more noticeable in this poll however is the effect Dean�s
inclusion on the ticket has among several key Democratic constituent groups.
Adding Dean to the ticket leads to lopsided leads for Kerry against Bush among
the Democratic base. Young voters, lower income voters, single voters, and
African American voters all reported large majorities in favor of a Kerry/Dean
ticket against Bush/Cheney. When a Kerry/Gephardt ticket was substituted
amongst these groups, the margins for the Democratic ticket shrank
significantly, with the lower income voting block casting their preference
equally for Kerry and Bush.
There has been a concern among strategists that if Kerry plays to much to the
middle that he could lose some of the Democratic base (either through apathy or
through creeping Naderism). But a Kerry/Dean ticket might solidly lock up that
base and thus free Kerry to spend more time wooing the centrist swing voters.
Of course, there is also the concern among some strategists that Dean would
drive away the centrists because the media has (unfairly) labeled Dean as a
leftist kook. I think this is an overblown concern. I've met quite a few
fence-sitters over the last few months who have expressed at best mild interest
in Kerry but still get excited when the conversation turns to Dean.
A Kerry/Dean ticket would certainly knock all those "Kerry is running a
boring campaign" stories off the page (of course, some might question
whether that is a good thing). Some have talked about the excitement that a
Kerry/McCain fusion would bring. Kerry/Dean would be another exciting fusion,
but of a different kind.
I still think Kerry/Dean is a long-shot at best. I just can't see Kerry
taking that dramatic a risk (Kerry/McCain held no risk, other then the embarrassment
that would come from the eventual rebuff). I also think that Dean's energy might
be better spent growing the grassroots as he has done over the last few months.
But if Dean on the ticket would give Kerry the boost he needs I'm sure the good
Doctor would be happy to answer the call.