Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Don't Worry, Be Happy

The concerns of some about the impact the contested Democratic primary would have on the general election are unfounded. Yes, previous polling has shown McCain drawing even with both Obama and Clinton. But I have always suspected that, once the "presumptive" nominee is selected, we would see a 10 point bounce in the polls.

Zogby International
UTICA, New York – Democrat Barack Obama has sprinted out to a 10-point lead over Republican John McCain in a four-way presidential contest including Libertarian Bob Barr and Liberal Ralph Nader, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone poll of likely voters nationwide shows.
People like winners. When someone wins they get an instant popularity boost.

It remains to be seen whether this boost will last, but we should really stop worrying so much.


Blogger Indian said...

How meaningful are these national polls? Your President is not elected by a general national election but by a state-wise electoral college system. And this picture is not looking like a cakewalk for Obama (

5:05 AM  
Blogger Chris Andersen said...

I never said it would be a cakewalk. It most definitely will not as the electoral vote analysis suggests.

However, there has been this persistent fear expressed by some democrats that a long contested primary would permanently damage the Democrats chances in the Fall and they would point to polls showing a tie between McCain and Obama/Clinton as evidence. My point is that these polls are held artificially low because they don't factor in the "everyone likes a winner" dynamic that will come into play once the nominee becomes clear. That is starting to happen and Obama's numbers are starting to go up.

This race will be hard. But democrats don't do themselves any service by fretting about non-problems like a contested primary.

9:25 AM  

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