Monday, March 10, 2003

So, Russia is saying they will veto the resolution as is? Good news? Not really. Consider this: if Bush doesn't get the 9 votes he needs from the current crop of UNSC fence-sitters, Russia won't have to veto. If they don't have to veto then they won't have to risk the troubles said veto will produce. Now, those fence-sitters are under considerable pressure from the U.S. to join them. Voting no would require a pretty big measure of courage. But, if those fence-sitters think that Russia is going to veto the resolution anyway then what do they really have to lose by voting for it? They can get the U.S. off their backs and the resolution will still fail. win-win for them. Russia and France should keep the question of their veto power unclear at best if they want to avoid having to use it at all. By making it clear what they will do they are, potentially, shooting themselves in the foot.

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