Thursday, October 23, 2008

2012

I agree with Marc Ambinder that Palin will be the frontrunner for the GOP in 2012, at least among the "voice of the angry Right in the Wilderness". And I agree that she is a naturally talented politician who can learn enough in the next four years to become much better at dealing with the "issues".

What remains a question mark for me is how the paleocon/finance wing of the GOP will respond to her. That will be the core of the coming Republican civil war. The hardcore base will push for Palin, but if she can't win over the bankers than she will face serious opposition from those who will argue that it was the GOP's appeal to the nativists that killed them in the end (see Andrew Sullivan, Chris Buckley, et. al). But if the bankers push to hard to suppress the nativists, they will lose their organizational ground troops.

But all of this will depend on how Obama does in his first term. If he is even moderately successful at reversing the course of the Bush years without leaving our country in a bad situation (economically) then I don't think there is anything the GOP can do to deny him a 2nd term. I've always believed that Obama was in the drivers seat of this election. I believe the same will be true once he is in office.

It remains to be seen whether he will be as good a President as he was a campaigner.

(all of this said with the usual caveats about how this election isn't over yet, blah blah blah)

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