Wednesday, June 04, 2008

A bullet is most powerful when it is NOT fired

Hilary Rosen, a Clinton supporter, fires what amounts to a shot across the bow of Hillary Clinton.

The Democratic party is no longer Clinton's party (either Bill or Hillary). But it is not yet Obama's. It will be, soon. But the shape of that party will be formed in the next few days and the single thing that will have the greatest impact on that will be what Hillary does next.

Some people are asking why she is still in this thing? I think it is because she has made the calculation that she can use her 18 million supporters and 49% of the delegates as leverage to essentially force her way into a prominent role in the Obama Democratic party.

Rosen's column is a warning to Clinton that she shouldn't count on being able to use Rosen as a "bargaining chip" in her poker game.

The truly sad thing about Clinton is that she assumes that she needs to force her way into the Obama Democratic Party. What she doesn't understand is that, by the fact that she does have those 18 million supporters and 49% of the delegates, she automatically gains considerable leverage. She doesn't need to force anything.

But, by trying to force herself in she is actually weakening her position. Like a general who shoots to much of his ammo, she will find herself lying in the battlefield with an empty gun as people like Rosen rebel against her actions.

I've given this shakeout a few days because that is how long I think the patience of a great deal of her institutional support will give her. If she continues with her, "make me an offer or else" approach she will forever destroy her influence in the party.

Update: John Aravosis explains why what Hilary Rosen says should matter.


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