Musing on political prognostication

Putting together the last post I was reminded of the last time I tried to handicap a race. It was a couple of days prior to the 2000 election. I posted my thoughts on what would happen on election night. I talked about how we should view the early returns and whether they would indicate a run-away race or a tight-race. I said, at the time, that Florida was the key. If the networks call it quickly for Gore then the race will be pretty much over for Bush. If it remains to close to call then I said, "Look for a long night ahead". Little did I realize at the time that that "long night" would last (please God only) four years.