Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Wasting time

When it comes to electoral stats I defer to Nate Silver.
Certainly, the No on 8 folks might have done a better job of outreach to California's black and Latino communities. But the notion that Prop 8 passed because of the Obama turnout surge is silly. Exit polls suggest that first-time voters -- the vast majority of whom were driven to turn out by Obama (he won 83 percent [!] of their votes) -- voted against Prop 8 by a 62-38 margin. More experienced voters voted for the measure 56-44, however, providing for its passage.
I don't think anyone seriously disputes that there is an outreach problem between the GLBT and black communities, but this search for a boogeyman to blame for the passage of Prop 8 is turning into a farce. As Nate points out, Prop 8 would have failed if those over 65 hadn't come out. Do we therefore blame them for its passage?

I prefer to blame EVERYONE who voted for it and then ask, how do we defeat this next time?


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