Friday, January 23, 2004

Google News Democratic Primary Poll for 1/23/2004

  This Week (1/23) Last Week (1/16)
1 Howard Dean 16000 22.9% -0.7 1 9700 25.9%
2 John Kerry 14300 20.5% +6.8 2 5270 14.1%
3 John Edwards 12700 18.2% +3.2 3 3940 10.5%
4 Wesley Clark 9570 13.7% +2.5 4 5070 13.5%
5 Joe Lieberman 7760 11.1% +0.7 6 4580 12.2%
6 Dennis Kucinich 5450 7.8% +0.8 7 1910 5.1%
7 Al Sharpton 4000 5.7% -0.8 8 1910 5.1%

Last week I said we would see how the caucus effects media coverage. Now we see it. Kerry and Edwards both get huge boosts from their 1st and 2nd place showings in Iowa. Dean's overall numbers really don't drop that but his share is eaten away by the rise of Kerry and Edwards. However, Gephardt's dropping out tends to obscure this impact.

Still, for as many stories as there are about Kerry's unexpected victory there are as many stories about Dean's unexpected third-place showing and the "Dean Scream" that followed.

Could Joe Lieberman be out by this time next week? Likely I would think, since he really has nothing to base his candidacy on in the future.

Could Dean be out by next week? Not likely. He'd have to finish 4th before I think he would even consider packing it in and he still most likely has the strongest national campaign running. I think that anything below a strong 2nd on Tuesday will probably continue the slow bleed of support and eventually doom his candidacy. But his strong media performances yesterday combined with stubborn New Hampshire pride could produce yet another surprising campaign story by this time next week.

The following is a chart of the Google News Media Share over the last few months:

(Methodology: All numbers are taken from the hit counts when searching on the Google News Service for news stories containing each candidate's name. Click on each name to rerun the search. You will get different results as the numbers are constantly changing. I make absolutely no claim that these numbers have any real meaning.)

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