Tuesday, December 23, 2003

Interestig poll analysis...

...over at NDN:

Although he is known as the candidate of the antiwar Democrats, Dean draws roughly equal support from Democrats who believe that the war in Iraq was not worth the cost and from those who believe it was, another sign of his broadening support. A solid majority (60 percent) of Democrats continue to say they believe the United States should not have gone to war.

The Post-ABC poll suggests that Dean's recent surge has come disproportionately from Democrats who do not closely identify with their party. In mid-October, Dean claimed the support of one in six Democratic-leaning independents and an equal proportion of party rank and file. Today, he gets significantly more support from independent Democrats (35 percent) than he does from party faithful (26 percent).

So, Dean's anti-war stance is not hurting him amongst pro-war Democrats and his support is greater amongst Democrats who do not actively identify themselves with the Democratic party (registered, but probably don't participate in party activities or contribute money to the party). This latter point is interesting because it suggests that Dean may be on his way to doing precisely what he has been saying he wanted to do all along: re-energize Democrats who have felt disenfranchised and win by bringing them back to the polls. I know that some political analysts have scoffed at this idea, but Democratic participation has gotten so bad in recent years that its a strategy that, just this once, might work.


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