Wednesday, April 30, 2003

Would a chaotic Iraq really be bad for Bush?

So, for the second day in a row, American forces fire into crowds of Iraqi protestors, killing some. Regardless of who is to blame for this tragedy, the fact remains that it just adds to the impression that the situation in Iraq is far from being "in control" and that it could, at a moment, shift into complete chaos (making the looting look like nothing). Some may think that if the Iraq situation falls apart that that would hurt Bush in 2004. Actually, it could help him. Look at Israel and the conflict over the West Bank. It seems that every time things fall apart there Ariel Sharon's approval goes UP. The fact that his belligerent approach to the Palestinians may have exacerbated the situation doesn't seem to matter once people feel that their sense of calm and order is being threatened. The same could happen here. If Iraq descends into chaos, Bush/Rove could manipulate the reporting of the situation to make it look like it is all the fault of the Iraqis and, by God, we better keep Bush in power if we don't want things to really get bad.


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