Thursday, November 01, 2007

Clinton beats Giuliani...or maybe not

This news is positive for Democrats. But I have to wonder if the results were weighed for enthusiasm (both positive and negative).

Ok, Hillary polls evenly with Giuliani amongst voters who attend church at least once a week. But were the respondents asked to judge who they would actually make the effort to vote for or who would they prefer? Saying you would prefer Clinton over Giuliani does not mean you will actually make the effort to go out and vote for her over Giuliani. You may be so dispirited with both choices that you may just not vote at all (or vote for a protest candidate). In which case the candidate who can (1) inspire their own positive voters and (2) not inspire the other guys negative voters, will have the advantage.

I think 2008 may turn out to be the most unpredictable election in recent memory. The variables involved are just to numerous to account for.


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