Tuesday, April 06, 2004

Ralph Nader may not qualify for the Oregon ballot

In 2000 Nader managed to draw crowds in excess of 10,000 during an appearance here in Portland. Yesterday, he couldn't even draw 1,000 to a rally trying to qualify him for the 2004 Oregon ballot. This is a very positive sign since Oregon is a battleground state in this election and probably the most sympathetic state to Naderism. If Nader can't even get 1,000 people to come out here then his prospects in the rest of the country must be even worse.

But why, then, is he drawing 5-7% in some national polls? I suspect that's more of a protest opinion than a reflection of real voting attitude. There are some who hate the fact that they might have to vote for Kerry but will do so anyway in order to get rid of Bush. But they don't want Kerry to think it will be easy to win so they say yes to Nader in the polls in order to make him sweat (and possibly swing more to the left in order to get their vote).

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