Thursday, December 11, 2003

Demographics

I stole this breakdown of the latest SUSA Iowa poll (pdf) from a poster over on the DailyKOS.

        | Dean
        |    | Edwards
        |    |    | Gephardt
        |    |    |    | Kerry
        |    |    |    |    | Other
        |    |    |    |    |    | Undecided
---------------------------------------
Overall | 42 | 10 | 23 | 15 |  7 |  4 |
Certain | 38 |  8 | 26 | 19 |  5 |  4 |
Probabl | 45 | 12 | 19 | 12 |  8 |  4 |
Male    | 41 |  9 | 21 | 16 |  7 |  5 |
Female  | 42 | 12 | 24 | 14 |  6 |  3 |
18-34   | 45 | 19 | 25 | 14 |  4 |  3 |
35-54   | 42 | 11 | 19 | 15 |  8 |  6 |
55+     | 39 | 11 | 25 | 16 |  7 |  2 |
White   | 42 | 10 | 22 | 16 |  6 |  4 |
Black   | 32 | 12 | 26 |  8 |  0 | 23 |
Hispani | 17 |  0 | 66 |  7 |  9 |  0 |
Other   | 45 | 31 |  6 |  0 | 18 |  0 |
Conserv | 46 | 12 | 22 |  4 | 10 |  6 |
Moderat | 37 | 11 | 27 | 18 |  6 |  1 |
Liberal | 47 |  9 | 15 | 15 |  7 |  6 |
Union   | 44 | 10 | 27 | 11 |  5 |  2 |
Non-Uni | 41 | 10 | 21 | 16 |  7 |  5 |
 

What I find most interesting in this is that Dean's lead among self-identified Conservative Dems is statistically the same as his lead amongst Liberal Dems. This is in direct contradiction of recent national polls that shows a large part of Dean's support coming from liberal Dems.

Now national polls at this stage still are more about name recognition than anything else and liberal Democrats are probably much more like to have heard and listened to what Dean has to say. But Iowa Democrats of all stripes have been hearing from Dean for months now and have had a better chance of judging him outside the media echo-chamber. This could explain why Conservative Dems are as supportive as Liberal Dems.

It also means that the more people get to know Dean the more they come to like him. So the challenge for the national campaign will be to get people to pay attention to his message is and not what the media says his message is.

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