Wednesday, September 17, 2003

Dean's gender gap

Kos points out the latest national Q-poll on the Democrats (it doesn't include Clark):

Undecided 21 (16)
Dean 14 (9)
Lieberman 14 (26)
Kerry 13 (15)
Gephardt 13 (14)
Braun 7 (6)
Edwards 7 (6)
Graham 4 (3)
Sharpton 4 (2)
Kucinich 2 (3)

While this poll confirms Lieberman's rapid decline at the national level, Kos rightly points out the interesting fact that Dean has a gender gap (20% male, 10% female). This is notable since Democrats, generally speaking, have had a real problem appealing to male voters over female voters. Part of this is almost certainly Dean's more muscular approach to campaigning. It is also a good sign for the future.

But what I find most interesting about this is that it doesn't match with my own experience with local Dean organizers. Easily half of the people on our local organizing committee are women. This makes me wonder if Portland, OR is just an odd town or whether Dean's gender gap exists only among the casual supporters.

Update: If you look farther down in these polling results you'll see the following numbers for Dean vs. Bush.

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Dean 38% 5% 69% 36% 35% 40%
Bush 53% 92% 20% 51% 55% 50%
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 2 2 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 2
DK/NA 7 2 8 8 6 7

What is interesting is that Dean's preference amongst Democratic males disappears in the general election. Which I take to mean that his muscular approach, while appealing to men in the primary, doesn't hurt him in the general.


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