Thursday, September 11, 2003

Clark's impact on the race (by the numbers)

The following is the first major national poll that I have seen that attempts to measure the initial impact of an entry by Wesley Clark into the race (USA TODAY/CNN/GALLUP for 9/11/2003). From this it looks like he hurts all the major candidates equally. 

13. Please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004.

13a. If Wesley Clark DOES NOT run for the Democratic nomination for president in 2004, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the nomination.

  If Clark runs If Clark doesn’t run
Dick Gephardt 15 17
Howard Dean 13 15
Joe Lieberman 12 13
John Kerry 11 13
Wesley Clark 9 --
Carol Moseley Braun 5 5
Bob Graham 5 6
John Edwards 5 5
Al Sharpton 3 3
Dennis Kucinich 2 2
Other 1 1
No One 5 5
No Opinion 14 15
Based on 480 Democrats or Democratic Leaners. Margin of error: ±5 percentage points

Surprisingly, Clark's entry doesn't effect the undecideds all that much. This is contrary to the assumption that a lot of undecided Dems are waiting for Clark to enter before they jump on a candidate.

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6:44 PM  

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