Foggy Bottom is not impressed with PNAC

Democracy Domino Theory 'Not Credible' A State Department report disputes Bush's claim that ousting Hussein will spur reforms in the Mideast, intelligence officials say. By Greg Miller Times Staff Writer March 14, 2003 WASHINGTON -- A classified State Department report expresses doubt that installing a new regime in Iraq will foster the spread of democracy in the Middle East, a claim President Bush has made in trying to build support for a war, according to intelligence officials familiar with the document. The report exposes significant divisions within the Bush administration over the so-called democratic domino theory, one of the arguments that underpins the case for invading Iraq. The report, which has been distributed to a small group of top government officials but not publicly disclosed, says that daunting economic and social problems are likely to undermine basic stability in the region for years, let alone prospects for democratic reform. Even if some version of democracy took root — an event the report casts as unlikely — anti-American sentiment is so pervasive that elections in the short term could lead to the rise of Islamic-controlled governments hostile to the United States.

Now here's an aspect of this that I have not previously heard discussed. If we were to invade and if we were to establish a democratic system in Iraq how would we react if the first people to win election under this new system were 2nd-cousins to Osama bin Laden? How could we prevent this without undermining the very democratic principles that we were allegedly trying to inspire? And don't think that it won't happen. Even if the Islamic extremists make up a very small portion of the Iraqi population, they, like their extremist kinfolk around the world, make up in fervor what they are lacking in numbers (why do you think the GOP can rely so completely on the extremists in our own country to always come out and vote for their candidate?) This demonstrates, once again, the problem with "imposing" democracy on another country.