I was struck by something last night... Common political wisdom of the last decade or so is that the winning candidate is the one who most appeals to the middle of the political spectrum. Every election year there is a 15-20% group of individuals called The Undecided by the pollsters who often either don't vote or make their final decision at the last possible moment. Analysts and pundits claim that the victor in an election is the one who can most appeal to the interests of this group. Find out what they want, give it to them, and you will win. These same analysists and pundits then go on to claim that the trend in Republican victories indicates that this center group has started to swing to the right. I think this is incorrect. The single most defining factor of the undecided middle is simply that: they are undecided. They have no really strong political opinion one way or the other. To say that they are swinging one direction or the other simply means that they are LEAVING the undecided group and becoming partisan in their leanings. Yet the size of the undecided group has, if anything, GROWN in recent years. It comes down to this: the middle doesn't want a candidate who will cater to what they want for the simple reason that they don't KNOW what they want. They will go with pretty much whatever they are sold on by the most forceful and omnipresent candidate. Therefore, a good candidate is one who brings the middle OVER to THEIR side, not one who fine-tunes their message to match the desires of the undecided. When a candidate comes along who presents themselves in a confident and assured manner and appeals to their best instincts then they will OVERWHELMINGLY go for that candidate. This is especially true when the other side doesn't present them with any compelling reason to chose their guy. The mistake the Democrats have been making repeatedly is to try to figure out what this group wants instead of simply TELLING them what they want. The Democrats come off looking weak and fawning to a group of political Martys. The Republicans have figured this out. It is why Bush can get away with baldly assertive claims about representing the will of the American people. He DOES represent the right most certainly. But he also represents the middle because they simply haven't been given a stronger alternative. If the Democrats nominate a candidate who can win this group over (or at least split them evenly) then they will have a chance against Bush. But if they continue to try to discover the elusive (i.e., non-existent) key to the heart of the muddled middle then they will continue to wander in the wilderness for a long time to come.